Almeria
Model pick
51%
Fair odds 1.98
Sp Gijon
26%
Fair odds 3.90
The prediction
- 1–111%
- 2–110%
- 1–08%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Almeria | Draw | Sp Gijon | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 51% | 24% | 26% |
| Elo model | 55% | 26% | 19% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Almeria
Almeria are rated 68 points above Sp Gijon (1453 to 1384), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Almeria
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Almeria's chance of winning and takes the same from Sp Gijon's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Almeria
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.3. Almeria score 1.2 a match against an average side (2nd in La Liga 2); Sp Gijon concede 1.5 (9th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Almeria DDWWW, gained 18 rating points; Sp Gijon WLWWW, gained 17 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Almeria
Almeria won 3, drew 2 and lost 1 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
AlmeriaSp GijonAlmeria
5/10 over 2.5
20 scored
9 conceded
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/27
10/03
10/11
10/24
10/31
Sp Gijon
4/10 over 2.5
12 scored
13 conceded
08/28
09/05
09/13
09/19
09/27
10/11
10/17
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Almeria | Draw | Sp Gijon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Almeria | 32%3.10 | 5%19.12 | 2%49.50 |
| Level | 16%6.28 | 13%7.75 | 10%10.28 |
| Sp Gijon | 3%34.97 | 5%21.14 | 14%6.97 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Almeria wins1Sp Gijon wins- L Sp Gijon vs Almeria 3-1
- W Almeria vs Sp Gijon 2-1
- D Sp Gijon vs Almeria 1-1
- D Almeria vs Sp Gijon 1-1
- W Almeria vs Sp Gijon 1-0
- W Sp Gijon vs Almeria 0-1
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Almeria's side.