Altrincham
Model pick
44%
Fair odds 2.29
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Altrincham | Draw | Worthing | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 44% | 25% | 31% |
| Elo model | 45% | 28% | 28% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Altrincham and Worthing are rated almost level (1070 and 1076).
-
Home advantage Favours Altrincham
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Altrincham's chance of winning and takes the same from Worthing's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Altrincham
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.4. Altrincham score 0.5 a match against an average side (13th in National League); Worthing concede 3.1 (14th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Altrincham LDWWL, barely moved; Worthing LDWWW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
AltrinchamWorthingAltrincham
8/10 over 2.5
17 scored
16 conceded
09/12
09/16
09/19
09/29
10/03
10/10
10/24
10/31
09/12
09/19
09/26
09/29
10/03
10/10
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-2
- 0-1
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 0 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Altrincham | Draw | Worthing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Altrincham | 29%3.51 | 6%17.73 | 2%43.10 |
| Level | 13%7.51 | 14%7.30 | 11%8.87 |
| Worthing | 2%43.67 | 5%21.01 | 18%5.50 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.