Andorra
Model pick
61%
Fair odds 1.64
Leganes
17%
Fair odds 5.88
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Andorra | Draw | Leganes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 61% | 22% | 17% |
| Elo model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Andorra
Andorra are rated 25 points above Leganes (1338 to 1313), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Andorra
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Andorra's chance of winning and takes the same from Leganes's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Andorra
Expected goals 2.0 to 1.0. Andorra score 1.1 a match against an average side (7th in La Liga 2); Leganes concede 1.8 (25th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Andorra
Andorra LLWDW, gained 7 rating points; Leganes LDLLL, lost 34 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Andorra won 2, drew 2 and lost 2 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
AndorraLeganesAndorra
5/10 over 2.5
10 scored
19 conceded
08/30
09/05
09/19
09/26
10/04
10/11
10/18
10/26
Leganes
4/10 over 2.5
8 scored
19 conceded
08/29
09/04
09/13
09/20
09/28
10/03
10/11
10/16
10/24
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Andorra | Draw | Leganes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andorra | 34%2.93 | 3%31.06 | 1%— |
| Level | 23%4.39 | 13%7.97 | 6%16.72 |
| Leganes | 4%22.32 | 5%18.55 | 11%9.43 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Andorra wins2Leganes wins- W Leganes vs Andorra 0-4
- L Andorra vs Leganes 1-2
- L Andorra vs Leganes 2-3
- W Leganes vs Andorra 0-1
- D Leganes vs Andorra 1-1
- D Andorra vs Leganes 1-1
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Andorra's side.