Angers
35%
Fair odds 2.88
Lens
Model pick
39%
Fair odds 2.54
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Angers | Draw | Lens | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 35% | 26% | 39% |
| Elo model | 26% | 27% | 46% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Lens
Lens are rated 135 points above Angers (1552 to 1417), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Angers
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Angers's chance of winning and takes the same from Lens's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.5. Angers score 0.9 a match against an average side (18th in Ligue 1); Lens concede 1.5 (16th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Angers LDLLW, lost 19 rating points; Lens LLWLW, lost 24 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Lens
Angers won 0, drew 1 and lost 7 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
AngersLensAngers
4/10 over 2.5
10 scored
18 conceded
05/17
08/23
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/18
10/25
11/01
Lens
8/10 over 2.5
14 scored
24 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/18
10/09
10/13
10/17
10/21
10/24
10/30
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 0-2
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Angers | Draw | Lens |
|---|---|---|---|
| Angers | 16%6.44 | 3%32.15 | 1%84.75 |
| Level | 16%6.40 | 14%7.11 | 10%9.62 |
| Lens | 4%24.27 | 8%12.97 | 28%3.54 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Angers wins7Lens wins- L Lens vs Angers 5-1
- L Angers vs Lens 1-2
- L Lens vs Angers 1-0
- L Angers vs Lens 0-1
- L Lens vs Angers 3-0
- L Angers vs Lens 1-2
- L Angers vs Lens 1-2
- D Lens vs Angers 2-2
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Angers's side.