Antwerp
33%
Fair odds 3.06
Anderlecht
Model pick
42%
Fair odds 2.37
The prediction
- 1–112%
- 1–29%
- 2–18%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Antwerp | Draw | Anderlecht | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 33% | 25% | 42% |
| Elo model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Anderlecht
Anderlecht are rated 64 points above Antwerp (1537 to 1473), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Antwerp
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Antwerp's chance of winning and takes the same from Anderlecht's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Anderlecht
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.6. Antwerp score 1.2 a match against an average side (13th in Belgian Pro League); Anderlecht concede 1.2 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Anderlecht
Antwerp LWLLL, lost 13 rating points; Anderlecht WWLWL, gained 11 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Anderlecht
Antwerp won 2, drew 6 and lost 6 of the last 14 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
AntwerpAnderlechtAntwerp
8/10 over 2.5
16 scored
22 conceded
08/09
08/15
08/22
08/30
09/05
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/24
11/01
Anderlecht
6/10 over 2.5
16 scored
9 conceded
09/06
09/11
09/16
09/19
10/10
10/15
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 2-2
- 1-0
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Antwerp | Draw | Anderlecht |
|---|---|---|---|
| Antwerp | 21%4.68 | 7%15.36 | 4%26.11 |
| Level | 10%9.78 | 14%7.33 | 17%6.04 |
| Anderlecht | 2%64.10 | 4%24.94 | 22%4.49 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Antwerp wins6Anderlecht wins- D Antwerp vs Anderlecht 2-2
- D Anderlecht vs Antwerp 0-0
- L Antwerp vs Anderlecht 1-3
- D Anderlecht vs Antwerp 0-0
- L Anderlecht vs Antwerp 2-0
- L Antwerp vs Anderlecht 1-2
- W Antwerp vs Anderlecht 3-1
- L Anderlecht vs Antwerp 1-0
- D Antwerp vs Anderlecht 1-1
- L Anderlecht vs Antwerp 1-0
14 meetings in the data. Results shown from Antwerp's side.