Arezzo
26%
Fair odds 3.87
Pisa
Model pick
49%
Fair odds 2.04
The prediction
- 1–112%
- 1–210%
- 0–19%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Arezzo | Draw | Pisa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 26% | 25% | 49% |
| Elo model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Pisa
Pisa are rated 65 points above Arezzo (1380 to 1315), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Arezzo
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Arezzo's chance of winning and takes the same from Pisa's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Pisa
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.7. Arezzo score 0.8 a match against an average side (19th in Serie B); Pisa concede 1.4 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Pisa
Arezzo DLLWD, lost 15 rating points; Pisa LDDWW, gained 15 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
ArezzoPisaArezzo
7/10 over 2.5
9 scored
19 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/06
09/11
09/20
10/10
10/18
10/24
10/28
11/01
Pisa
7/10 over 2.5
18 scored
15 conceded
08/23
08/30
09/06
09/11
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/25
10/28
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Arezzo | Draw | Pisa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arezzo | 15%6.65 | 5%18.52 | 3%29.67 |
| Level | 10%10.28 | 14%6.94 | 19%5.38 |
| Pisa | 2%65.36 | 4%22.94 | 28%3.62 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.