Aris
21%
Fair odds 4.68
Olympiakos
Model pick
51%
Fair odds 1.95
The prediction
- 0–113%
- 1–113%
- 0–210%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Aris | Draw | Olympiakos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 21% | 27% | 51% |
| Elo model | 23% | 27% | 51% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Olympiakos
Olympiakos are rated 165 points above Aris (1554 to 1389), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Aris
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Aris's chance of winning and takes the same from Olympiakos's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Olympiakos
Expected goals 0.9 to 1.5. Aris score 0.9 a match against an average side (7th in Greek Super League); Olympiakos concede 1.0 (1st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Olympiakos
Aris LWWWD, barely moved; Olympiakos DWWWW, gained 22 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Olympiakos
Aris won 4, drew 3 and lost 9 of the last 16 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
ArisOlympiakosAris
8/10 over 2.5
16 scored
17 conceded
05/17
08/22
08/30
09/05
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/25
11/01
Olympiakos
3/10 over 2.5
16 scored
4 conceded
09/12
09/16
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 0-1
- 1-1
- 0-2
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Aris | Draw | Olympiakos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aris | 14%6.92 | 6%16.92 | 3%31.55 |
| Level | 7%14.81 | 17%5.78 | 20%4.96 |
| Olympiakos | 1%— | 3%31.95 | 28%3.51 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Aris wins9Olympiakos wins- D Aris vs Olympiakos 0-0
- L Olympiakos vs Aris 2-1
- L Olympiakos vs Aris 2-1
- W Aris vs Olympiakos 2-1
- D Aris vs Olympiakos 1-1
- L Olympiakos vs Aris 3-0
- L Aris vs Olympiakos 1-2
- L Olympiakos vs Aris 4-1
- W Aris vs Olympiakos 2-1
- D Olympiakos vs Aris 2-2
16 meetings in the data. Results shown from Aris's side.