Arouca
Model pick
64%
Fair odds 1.56
Rio Ave
15%
Fair odds 6.75
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Arouca | Draw | Rio Ave | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 64% | 21% | 15% |
| Elo model | 61% | 24% | 15% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Arouca
Arouca are rated 105 points above Rio Ave (1518 to 1413), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Arouca
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Arouca's chance of winning and takes the same from Rio Ave's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Arouca
Expected goals 2.1 to 0.9. Arouca score 1.2 a match against an average side (4th in Primeira Liga); Rio Ave concede 1.6 (20th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Arouca
Arouca WWWDL, gained 14 rating points; Rio Ave LLWLD, lost 19 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Rio Ave
Arouca won 1, drew 4 and lost 3 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
AroucaRio AveArouca
4/10 over 2.5
13 scored
7 conceded
08/16
08/23
08/29
09/07
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/24
11/01
Rio Ave
6/10 over 2.5
9 scored
23 conceded
08/09
08/15
08/22
08/28
09/06
09/14
09/19
10/11
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Arouca | Draw | Rio Ave |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca | 35%2.84 | 3%35.97 | 1%— |
| Level | 25%4.08 | 12%8.35 | 5%19.76 |
| Rio Ave | 5%20.24 | 5%18.52 | 10%10.50 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Arouca wins3Rio Ave wins- W Rio Ave vs Arouca 0-3
- D Arouca vs Rio Ave 3-3
- D Arouca vs Rio Ave 1-1
- L Rio Ave vs Arouca 1-0
- D Rio Ave vs Arouca 1-1
- D Arouca vs Rio Ave 2-2
- L Rio Ave vs Arouca 1-0
- L Arouca vs Rio Ave 0-1
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Arouca's side.