Arsenal
Model pick
63%
Fair odds 1.59Bookmakers 67%
Dortmund
15%
Fair odds 6.80Bookmakers 13%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Arsenal | Draw | Dortmund | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 63% | 22% | 15% |
| Elo model | 63% | 24% | 14% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 67% | 20% | 13% |
| Best price on offer | 1.46 | 5.03 | 8.00 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Arsenal
Arsenal are rated 121 points above Dortmund (1772 to 1651), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Arsenal
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Arsenal's chance of winning and takes the same from Dortmund's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Arsenal
Expected goals 1.9 to 0.8. Arsenal score 1.8 a match against an average side (6th in Premier League); Dortmund concede 1.1 (2nd best defence in Bundesliga).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Arsenal WWWDW, gained 18 rating points; Dortmund WDWWD, gained 11 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Arsenal
Bookmakers rate Arsenal higher than the model does: Arsenal 67% against the model's 63%, Dortmund 13% against 15%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
ArsenalDortmundArsenal
5/10 over 2.5
16 scored
7 conceded
09/09
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/18
10/21
10/24
11/01
11/04
Dortmund
6/10 over 2.5
16 scored
9 conceded
09/08
09/12
09/19
10/09
10/14
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 58%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 0-0
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Arsenal | Draw | Dortmund |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 36%2.80 | 3%34.48 | 1%— |
| Level | 24%4.22 | 13%7.45 | 5%19.19 |
| Dortmund | 4%24.75 | 5%19.61 | 9%10.73 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.