Arsenal
Model pick
46%
Fair odds 2.17
Man City
27%
Fair odds 3.76
The prediction
- 1–113%
- 1–011%
- 2–19%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Arsenal | Draw | Man City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Elo model | 54% | 26% | 20% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Arsenal
Arsenal are rated 61 points above Man City (1772 to 1710), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Arsenal
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Arsenal's chance of winning and takes the same from Man City's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Arsenal
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.1. Arsenal score 1.8 a match against an average side (6th in Premier League); Man City concede 0.8 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Arsenal
Arsenal WWWDW, gained 18 rating points; Man City WLLWW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Man City
Arsenal won 2, drew 3 and lost 5 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
ArsenalMan CityArsenal
5/10 over 2.5
16 scored
7 conceded
09/09
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/18
10/21
10/24
11/01
11/04
Man City
7/10 over 2.5
25 scored
15 conceded
09/08
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/14
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Arsenal | Draw | Man City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 27%3.71 | 4%22.47 | 1%73.53 |
| Level | 17%5.81 | 17%6.02 | 10%9.94 |
| Man City | 3%38.91 | 5%19.38 | 16%6.38 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Arsenal wins5Man City wins- L Man City vs Arsenal 2-1
- D Arsenal vs Man City 1-1
- W Arsenal vs Man City 5-1
- D Man City vs Arsenal 2-2
- D Man City vs Arsenal 0-0
- W Arsenal vs Man City 1-0
- L Man City vs Arsenal 4-1
- L Arsenal vs Man City 1-3
- L Arsenal vs Man City 1-2
- L Man City vs Arsenal 5-0
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Arsenal's side.