Ath Madrid
Model pick
56%
Fair odds 1.77Bookmakers 86%
Viking
23%
Fair odds 4.41Bookmakers 5%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Ath Madrid: 56% here, 86% with bookmakers; A draw: 21% here, 10% with bookmakers; Viking: 23% here, 5% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Ath Madrid | Draw | Viking | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 56% | 21% | 23% |
| Elo model | 56% | 26% | 19% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 86% | 10% | 5% |
| Best price on offer | 1.13 | 13.20 | 28.00 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Ath Madrid
Ath Madrid are rated 72 points above Viking (1632 to 1561), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Ath Madrid
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Ath Madrid's chance of winning and takes the same from Viking's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Ath Madrid
Expected goals 2.2 to 1.4. Ath Madrid score 1.6 a match against an average side (3rd in La Liga); Viking concede 1.4 (2nd best defence in Eliteserien).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Ath Madrid LWWDW, gained 6 rating points; Viking WLWLW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Ath Madrid
Bookmakers rate Ath Madrid higher than the model does: Ath Madrid 86% against the model's 56%, Viking 5% against 23%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Ath MadridVikingAth Madrid
4/10 over 2.5
18 scored
5 conceded
09/13
09/16
09/20
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
11/03
Viking
9/10 over 2.5
30 scored
17 conceded
09/09
09/13
09/20
10/09
10/13
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/30
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 75%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 3-1
- 2-0
- 2-2
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Ath Madrid | Draw | Viking |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ath Madrid | 33%3.06 | 5%21.10 | 2%43.86 |
| Level | 20%5.00 | 11%9.26 | 9%10.56 |
| Viking | 4%23.64 | 5%22.12 | 11%8.84 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.