Athletico-PR
Model pick
57%
Fair odds 1.75
Remo
19%
Fair odds 5.13
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Athletico-PR | Draw | Remo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 57% | 23% | 19% |
| Elo model | 55% | 26% | 19% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Athletico-PR
Athletico-PR are rated 68 points above Remo (1371 to 1304), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Athletico-PR
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Athletico-PR's chance of winning and takes the same from Remo's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Athletico-PR
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.0. Athletico-PR score 0.9 a match against an average side (9th in Brasileirão); Remo concede 2.1 (20th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Remo
Athletico-PR LLDLW, lost 27 rating points; Remo LWLDD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Athletico-PRRemoAthletico-PR
7/10 over 2.5
17 scored
21 conceded
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/09
10/12
10/17
10/24
10/30
11/04
Remo
5/10 over 2.5
9 scored
18 conceded
09/01
09/06
09/15
09/19
10/07
10/10
10/18
10/23
10/29
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 0-0
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Athletico-PR | Draw | Remo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletico-PR | 32%3.11 | 3%35.97 | 1%— |
| Level | 21%4.81 | 13%7.60 | 5%19.38 |
| Remo | 5%21.60 | 7%15.22 | 14%7.07 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Athletico-PR wins0Remo wins- W Remo vs Athletico-PR 1-2
1 meetings in the data. Results shown from Athletico-PR's side.