Atl. San Luis
Model pick
48%
Fair odds 2.10
Juarez
17%
Fair odds 6.02
Live probabilities. Before kick-off: 64% / 20% / 16%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Atl. San Luis: 64% here, 56% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Atl. San Luis | Draw | Juarez | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 64% | 20% | 16% |
| Elo model | 55% | 26% | 20% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| Best price on offer | 1.67 | 4.20 | 5.00 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Atl. San Luis
Atl. San Luis are rated 62 points above Juarez (1341 to 1279), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Atl. San Luis
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Atl. San Luis's chance of winning and takes the same from Juarez's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Atl. San Luis
Expected goals 2.3 to 1.0. Atl. San Luis score 0.9 a match against an average side (12th in Liga MX); Juarez concede 2.5 (19th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Atl. San Luis LWWDL, barely moved; Juarez WDLLD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Juarez
Bookmakers rate Juarez higher than the model does: Atl. San Luis 56% against the model's 64%, Juarez 20% against 16%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Juarez
Atl. San Luis won 3, drew 1 and lost 6 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Atl. San LuisJuarezAtl. San Luis
6/10 over 2.5
14 scored
14 conceded
08/31
09/06
09/15
09/20
09/27
10/18
10/21
10/24
10/31
Juarez
5/10 over 2.5
9 scored
19 conceded
08/31
09/05
09/19
09/28
10/11
10/18
10/21
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 2-2
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Atl. San Luis | Draw | Juarez |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atl. San Luis | 33%3.04 | 2%45.66 | 0%— |
| Level | 25%4.02 | 10%9.83 | 4%24.51 |
| Juarez | 7%14.12 | 7%14.84 | 12%8.67 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Atl. San Luis wins6Juarez wins- L Juarez vs Atl. San Luis 2-1
- L Atl. San Luis vs Juarez 1-2
- W Atl. San Luis vs Juarez 1-0
- W Juarez vs Atl. San Luis 2-4
- L Atl. San Luis vs Juarez 2-3
- L Juarez vs Atl. San Luis 3-2
- W Atl. San Luis vs Juarez 2-0
- D Juarez vs Atl. San Luis 1-1
- L Atl. San Luis vs Juarez 0-1
- L Juarez vs Atl. San Luis 1-0
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Atl. San Luis's side.