Atletico-MG
Model pick
48%
Fair odds 2.09
Vasco
26%
Fair odds 3.83
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Atletico-MG | Draw | Vasco | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Elo model | 51% | 27% | 22% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Atletico-MG
Atletico-MG are rated 40 points above Vasco (1384 to 1344), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Atletico-MG
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Atletico-MG's chance of winning and takes the same from Vasco's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Atletico-MG
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.1. Atletico-MG score 0.8 a match against an average side (10th in Brasileirão); Vasco concede 1.8 (16th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Atletico-MG LLLWW, lost 7 rating points; Vasco WLWLD, gained 6 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Atletico-MG won 3, drew 1 and lost 3 of the last 7 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Atletico-MGVascoAtletico-MG
4/10 over 2.5
12 scored
12 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/03
10/09
10/11
10/17
10/26
10/29
11/05
Vasco
7/10 over 2.5
19 scored
12 conceded
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/08
10/10
10/18
10/24
10/29
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Atletico-MG | Draw | Vasco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico-MG | 30%3.32 | 4%23.36 | 1%86.21 |
| Level | 16%6.42 | 15%6.53 | 8%12.15 |
| Vasco | 3%37.74 | 6%18.15 | 17%5.82 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Atletico-MG wins3Vasco wins- W Vasco vs Atletico-MG 0-1
- W Atletico-MG vs Vasco 5-0
- D Vasco vs Atletico-MG 1-1
- L Vasco vs Atletico-MG 2-0
- W Atletico-MG vs Vasco 2-0
- L Vasco vs Atletico-MG 1-0
- L Atletico-MG vs Vasco 1-2
7 meetings in the data. Results shown from Atletico-MG's side.