Atromitos
17%
Fair odds 5.78
Panathinaikos
Model pick
59%
Fair odds 1.68
The prediction
- 0–111%
- 1–111%
- 0–211%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Atromitos | Draw | Panathinaikos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 17% | 23% | 59% |
| Elo model | 20% | 26% | 53% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Panathinaikos
Panathinaikos are rated 184 points above Atromitos (1523 to 1339), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Atromitos
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Atromitos's chance of winning and takes the same from Panathinaikos's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Panathinaikos
Expected goals 0.9 to 1.9. Atromitos score 0.8 a match against an average side (10th in Greek Super League); Panathinaikos concede 1.1 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Panathinaikos
Atromitos WLLLD, lost 13 rating points; Panathinaikos WWWWW, gained 34 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Panathinaikos
Atromitos won 1, drew 3 and lost 6 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
AtromitosPanathinaikosAtromitos
7/10 over 2.5
16 scored
14 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/25
11/02
Panathinaikos
6/10 over 2.5
24 scored
6 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 0-1
- 1-1
- 0-2
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 0-3
- 1-3
- 1-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Atromitos | Draw | Panathinaikos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atromitos | 12%8.68 | 6%16.95 | 5%21.88 |
| Level | 6%17.86 | 14%7.35 | 23%4.27 |
| Panathinaikos | 1%— | 3%35.21 | 32%3.13 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Atromitos wins6Panathinaikos wins- D Atromitos vs Panathinaikos 0-0
- L Panathinaikos vs Atromitos 1-0
- D Atromitos vs Panathinaikos 1-1
- D Panathinaikos vs Atromitos 1-1
- W Atromitos vs Panathinaikos 3-2
- L Panathinaikos vs Atromitos 5-0
- L Atromitos vs Panathinaikos 0-2
- L Panathinaikos vs Atromitos 2-0
- L Atromitos vs Panathinaikos 0-2
- L Panathinaikos vs Atromitos 2-0
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Atromitos's side.