Austria Vienna
Model pick
50%
Fair odds 2.01
Wolfsberger AC
25%
Fair odds 3.96
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Austria Vienna | Draw | Wolfsberger AC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Elo model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Austria Vienna
Austria Vienna are rated 21 points above Wolfsberger AC (1317 to 1296), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Austria Vienna
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Austria Vienna's chance of winning and takes the same from Wolfsberger AC's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Austria Vienna
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.1. Austria Vienna score 0.7 a match against an average side (9th in Austrian Bundesliga); Wolfsberger AC concede 2.4 (11th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Austria Vienna LLLLD, lost 32 rating points; Wolfsberger AC DLLLL, lost 41 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Austria Vienna won 8, drew 3 and lost 7 of the last 18 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Austria ViennaWolfsberger ACAustria Vienna
5/10 over 2.5
10 scored
19 conceded
08/09
08/16
08/30
09/02
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/23
11/01
Wolfsberger AC
5/10 over 2.5
5 scored
20 conceded
08/09
08/15
08/29
09/01
09/12
09/20
10/11
10/18
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Austria Vienna | Draw | Wolfsberger AC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austria Vienna | 30%3.31 | 4%24.15 | 1%84.75 |
| Level | 17%5.96 | 14%6.98 | 8%12.45 |
| Wolfsberger AC | 3%31.65 | 6%17.48 | 16%6.07 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
8Austria Vienna wins7Wolfsberger AC wins- L Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna 3-0
- L Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna 2-1
- L Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC 0-2
- W Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna 1-2
- D Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC 0-0
- W Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna 0-1
- W Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC 3-1
- W Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna 1-2
- L Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC 0-4
- W Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna 0-1
18 meetings in the data. Results shown from Austria Vienna's side.