Auxerre
36%
Fair odds 2.75
Marseille
Model pick
38%
Fair odds 2.61
The prediction
- 1–112%
- 1–29%
- 2–18%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Auxerre | Draw | Marseille | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 36% | 25% | 38% |
| Elo model | 33% | 28% | 39% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Marseille
Marseille are rated 88 points above Auxerre (1551 to 1463), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Auxerre
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Auxerre's chance of winning and takes the same from Marseille's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.5. Auxerre score 1.2 a match against an average side (13th in Ligue 1); Marseille concede 1.3 (10th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Marseille
Auxerre LDWLW, barely moved; Marseille WWWLW, gained 26 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Marseille
Auxerre won 2, drew 0 and lost 4 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
AuxerreMarseilleAuxerre
7/10 over 2.5
15 scored
23 conceded
05/17
08/22
08/29
09/04
09/12
09/20
10/11
10/18
10/25
11/01
Marseille
4/10 over 2.5
16 scored
14 conceded
09/11
09/17
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 2-2
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Auxerre | Draw | Marseille |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | 20%4.96 | 5%20.92 | 2%43.29 |
| Level | 14%7.20 | 14%7.23 | 13%7.59 |
| Marseille | 3%34.97 | 6%17.64 | 23%4.28 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Auxerre wins4Marseille wins- L Marseille vs Auxerre 1-0
- L Auxerre vs Marseille 0-1
- W Auxerre vs Marseille 3-0
- W Marseille vs Auxerre 1-3
- L Marseille vs Auxerre 2-1
- L Auxerre vs Marseille 0-2
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Auxerre's side.