Bahia
Model pick
63%
Fair odds 1.60
Coritiba
16%
Fair odds 6.20
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Bahia | Draw | Coritiba | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| Elo model | 59% | 25% | 16% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Bahia
Bahia are rated 92 points above Coritiba (1393 to 1301), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Bahia
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Bahia's chance of winning and takes the same from Coritiba's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Bahia
Expected goals 2.1 to 1.0. Bahia score 0.9 a match against an average side (7th in Brasileirão); Coritiba concede 2.2 (21st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Bahia LWDLW, barely moved; Coritiba LWLLD, lost 6 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Bahia won 2, drew 0 and lost 1 of the last 3 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
BahiaCoritibaBahia
7/10 over 2.5
16 scored
17 conceded
08/30
09/05
09/15
09/20
10/09
10/11
10/18
10/25
10/29
11/06
Coritiba
5/10 over 2.5
10 scored
20 conceded
09/01
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/09
10/12
10/17
10/26
10/31
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Bahia | Draw | Coritiba |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia | 33%3.03 | 2%47.17 | 0%— |
| Level | 24%4.18 | 11%8.82 | 4%25.84 |
| Coritiba | 6%16.08 | 7%14.49 | 12%8.18 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Bahia wins1Coritiba wins- L Coritiba vs Bahia 3-2
- W Coritiba vs Bahia 2-4
- W Bahia vs Coritiba 3-1
3 meetings in the data. Results shown from Bahia's side.