Barcelona
Model pick
87%
Fair odds 1.15
Villarreal
5%
Fair odds 21.98
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Barcelona | Draw | Villarreal | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 87% | 8% | 5% |
| Elo model | 75% | 18% | 6% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Barcelona
Barcelona are rated 230 points above Villarreal (1753 to 1524), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Barcelona
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 6 points to Barcelona's chance of winning and takes the same from Villarreal's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Barcelona
Expected goals 3.8 to 0.9. Barcelona score 2.7 a match against an average side (1st in La Liga); Villarreal concede 1.4 (17th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Barcelona
Barcelona WWLLW, barely moved; Villarreal LLWLD, lost 23 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Barcelona
Barcelona won 7, drew 0 and lost 3 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
BarcelonaVillarrealBarcelona
10/10 over 2.5
38 scored
15 conceded
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/20
10/25
10/31
11/03
Villarreal
7/10 over 2.5
15 scored
18 conceded
09/14
09/17
09/20
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/30
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 3-0
- 4-0
- 3-1
- 4-1
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 5-0
- 5-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Barcelona | Draw | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 51%1.97 | 1%99.01 | 0%— |
| Level | 28%3.62 | 4%26.53 | 1%79.37 |
| Villarreal | 9%11.27 | 3%30.86 | 3%31.25 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
7Barcelona wins3Villarreal wins- W Barcelona vs Villarreal 4-1
- W Villarreal vs Barcelona 0-2
- L Barcelona vs Villarreal 2-3
- W Villarreal vs Barcelona 1-5
- L Barcelona vs Villarreal 3-5
- W Villarreal vs Barcelona 3-4
- W Villarreal vs Barcelona 0-1
- W Barcelona vs Villarreal 3-0
- L Barcelona vs Villarreal 0-2
- W Villarreal vs Barcelona 1-3
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Barcelona's side.