Barnsley
Model pick
85%
Fair odds 1.18
Aldershot
5%
Fair odds 19.92
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Barnsley | Draw | Aldershot | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 85% | 10% | 5% |
| Elo model | 80% | 16% | 4% |
Team news
- Jack Shepherd Out
- Connor O'Riordan Doubtful
- Ben Hamed Toure Out
- Fabio Jalo Out
- Tobi Adeyemo Doubtful
Stendel reported no fresh injury issues; Isaac Smith is close to a return and Daniel Johnson is fit, so neither is listed as an absence.
- Conor Lawless Doubtful
Sports Mole reports Aldershot will field a similar XI to the one that beat Gateshead; no other recent Aldershot injury news was found.
Allowing for this news: Barnsley 83%, draw 11%, Aldershot 6% (xG 3.21 – 0.82). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: yorkshirepost.co.uk, yorkshirepost.co.uk, thefootballnetwork.net, livescore.com
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Barnsley
Barnsley are rated 279 points above Aldershot (1288 to 1010), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Barnsley
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 5 points to Barnsley's chance of winning and takes the same from Aldershot's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Barnsley
Expected goals 3.2 to 0.8. Barnsley score 0.9 a match against an average side (11th in League One); Aldershot concede 3.6 (23rd best defence in National League).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Barnsley DLLLL, lost 18 rating points; Aldershot WLLLL, lost 31 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
BarnsleyAldershotBarnsley
8/10 over 2.5
12 scored
21 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Aldershot
5/10 over 2.5
12 scored
15 conceded
09/12
09/15
09/19
10/03
10/10
10/24
10/28
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 3-0
- 2-0
- 4-0
- 3-1
- 2-1
- 4-1
- 1-0
- 5-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 6 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Barnsley | Draw | Aldershot |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barnsley | 67%1.49 | 3%37.74 | 1%— |
| Level | 16%6.36 | 5%18.21 | 2%44.84 |
| Aldershot | 2%45.25 | 2%57.14 | 2%42.02 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.