Betis
Model pick
52%
Fair odds 1.92
Vallecano
24%
Fair odds 4.12
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Betis | Draw | Vallecano | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 52% | 24% | 24% |
| Elo model | 57% | 25% | 18% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Betis
Betis are rated 80 points above Vallecano (1583 to 1504), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Betis
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Betis's chance of winning and takes the same from Vallecano's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Betis
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.2. Betis score 1.5 a match against an average side (5th in La Liga); Vallecano concede 1.2 (8th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Betis LWDWL, lost 6 rating points; Vallecano WLDDW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Betis
Betis won 4, drew 5 and lost 1 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
BetisVallecanoBetis
6/10 over 2.5
18 scored
14 conceded
09/14
09/17
09/20
10/11
10/14
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/31
11/04
Vallecano
7/10 over 2.5
15 scored
20 conceded
08/15
08/20
08/31
09/12
09/15
09/19
10/19
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 3-1
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Betis | Draw | Vallecano |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betis | 31%3.20 | 4%22.78 | 1%67.11 |
| Level | 18%5.63 | 13%7.72 | 8%11.81 |
| Vallecano | 4%28.17 | 5%18.45 | 15%6.78 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Betis wins1Vallecano wins- D Betis vs Vallecano 1-1
- D Vallecano vs Betis 0-0
- D Vallecano vs Betis 2-2
- D Betis vs Vallecano 1-1
- L Vallecano vs Betis 2-0
- W Betis vs Vallecano 1-0
- W Betis vs Vallecano 3-1
- W Vallecano vs Betis 1-2
- D Vallecano vs Betis 1-1
- W Betis vs Vallecano 3-2
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Betis's side.