Birmingham
Model pick
66%
Fair odds 1.51
Bolton
14%
Fair odds 7.17
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Birmingham | Draw | Bolton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 66% | 20% | 14% |
| Elo model | 64% | 23% | 13% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Birmingham
Birmingham are rated 130 points above Bolton (1524 to 1394), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Birmingham
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Birmingham's chance of winning and takes the same from Bolton's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Birmingham
Expected goals 2.2 to 0.9. Birmingham score 1.4 a match against an average side (4th in Championship); Bolton concede 1.6 (20th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Birmingham
Birmingham WWLWW, gained 33 rating points; Bolton WLLDW, gained 12 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
BirminghamBoltonBirmingham
8/10 over 2.5
21 scored
9 conceded
09/06
09/09
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bolton
7/10 over 2.5
15 scored
21 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/23
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Birmingham | Draw | Bolton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 41%2.46 | 3%31.06 | 1%— |
| Level | 22%4.59 | 11%8.94 | 5%20.08 |
| Bolton | 4%24.33 | 5%21.41 | 9%11.70 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Birmingham wins1Bolton wins- L Bolton vs Birmingham 3-1
- W Birmingham vs Bolton 2-0
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Birmingham's side.