Blackburn
Model pick
54%
Fair odds 1.86
Charlton
20%
Fair odds 4.93
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Blackburn | Draw | Charlton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 54% | 26% | 20% |
| Elo model | 54% | 26% | 20% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Blackburn
Blackburn are rated 61 points above Charlton (1445 to 1385), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Blackburn
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Blackburn's chance of winning and takes the same from Charlton's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Blackburn
Expected goals 1.6 to 0.9. Blackburn score 1.0 a match against an average side (19th in Championship); Charlton concede 1.6 (22nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Blackburn
Blackburn LLWLW, lost 7 rating points; Charlton LLLLD, lost 33 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
BlackburnCharltonBlackburn
8/10 over 2.5
15 scored
17 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Charlton
5/10 over 2.5
5 scored
19 conceded
09/05
09/09
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 3-0
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Blackburn | Draw | Charlton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn | 34%2.99 | 4%22.94 | 1%90.09 |
| Level | 18%5.46 | 16%6.15 | 8%12.25 |
| Charlton | 2%42.19 | 4%22.47 | 11%8.70 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Blackburn wins1Charlton wins- D Blackburn vs Charlton 2-2
- L Charlton vs Blackburn 3-0
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Blackburn's side.