Bodo/Glimt
Model pick
75%
Fair odds 1.33
KFUM Oslo
9%
Fair odds 10.70
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Bodo/Glimt | Draw | KFUM Oslo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 75% | 16% | 9% |
| Elo model | 80% | 16% | 4% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Bodo/Glimt
Bodo/Glimt are rated 278 points above KFUM Oslo (1614 to 1336), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Bodo/Glimt
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 5 points to Bodo/Glimt's chance of winning and takes the same from KFUM Oslo's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Bodo/Glimt
Expected goals 2.6 to 0.8. Bodo/Glimt score 1.4 a match against an average side (4th in Eliteserien); KFUM Oslo concede 1.9 (10th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours KFUM Oslo
Bodo/Glimt DWLLW, lost 17 rating points; KFUM Oslo DDDWW, gained 22 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Bodo/Glimt
Bodo/Glimt won 3, drew 2 and lost 0 of the last 5 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Bodo/GlimtKFUM OsloBodo/Glimt
6/10 over 2.5
16 scored
17 conceded
09/10
09/14
09/20
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/30
11/03
KFUM Oslo
6/10 over 2.5
15 scored
15 conceded
08/07
08/15
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/18
10/12
10/18
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 3-0
- 2-1
- 3-1
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 4-0
- 4-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Bodo/Glimt | Draw | KFUM Oslo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bodo/Glimt | 35%2.89 | 1%— | 0%— |
| Level | 30%3.30 | 7%13.77 | 2%65.36 |
| KFUM Oslo | 11%9.47 | 7%14.66 | 8%12.53 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Bodo/Glimt wins0KFUM Oslo wins- W KFUM Oslo vs Bodo/Glimt 0-2
- W KFUM Oslo vs Bodo/Glimt 1-2
- W Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo 3-0
- D KFUM Oslo vs Bodo/Glimt 1-1
- D Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo 2-2
5 meetings in the data. Results shown from Bodo/Glimt's side.