Bodo/Glimt
Model pick
51%
Fair odds 1.95Bookmakers 62%
LASK
27%
Fair odds 3.68Bookmakers 18%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Bodo/Glimt: 51% here, 62% with bookmakers; LASK: 27% here, 18% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Bodo/Glimt | Draw | LASK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 51% | 22% | 27% |
| Elo model | 66% | 22% | 11% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 62% | 19% | 18% |
| Best price on offer | 1.58 | 5.25 | 5.50 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Bodo/Glimt
Bodo/Glimt are rated 151 points above LASK (1614 to 1463), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Bodo/Glimt
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Bodo/Glimt's chance of winning and takes the same from LASK's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Bodo/Glimt
Expected goals 2.1 to 1.5. Bodo/Glimt score 1.4 a match against an average side (4th in Eliteserien); LASK concede 1.5 (3rd best defence in Austrian Bundesliga).
-
Last 5 matches Favours LASK
Bodo/Glimt DWLLW, lost 17 rating points; LASK WWLWW, gained 25 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Bodo/Glimt
Bookmakers rate Bodo/Glimt higher than the model does: Bodo/Glimt 62% against the model's 51%, LASK 18% against 27%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Bodo/GlimtLASKBodo/Glimt
6/10 over 2.5
16 scored
17 conceded
09/10
09/14
09/20
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/30
11/03
LASK
8/10 over 2.5
21 scored
20 conceded
09/08
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/14
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 75%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 2-2
- 1-2
- 3-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Bodo/Glimt | Draw | LASK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bodo/Glimt | 29%3.49 | 5%21.79 | 2%43.67 |
| Level | 18%5.45 | 11%9.23 | 10%10.07 |
| LASK | 5%21.69 | 5%18.48 | 15%6.52 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.