Boreham Wood
Model pick
87%
Fair odds 1.15
Gateshead
4%
Fair odds 24.94
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Boreham Wood | Draw | Gateshead | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 87% | 9% | 4% |
| Elo model | 81% | 15% | 4% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Boreham Wood
Boreham Wood are rated 291 points above Gateshead (1226 to 935), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Boreham Wood
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 4 points to Boreham Wood's chance of winning and takes the same from Gateshead's.
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Attack against defence Favours Boreham Wood
Expected goals 3.4 to 0.7. Boreham Wood score 0.8 a match against an average side (1st in National League); Gateshead concede 4.2 (27th best defence).
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Last 5 matches Favours Boreham Wood
Boreham Wood WWWWW, gained 25 rating points; Gateshead LLLLL, lost 26 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Boreham Wood won 2, drew 3 and lost 1 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Boreham WoodGatesheadBoreham Wood
8/10 over 2.5
28 scored
9 conceded
09/12
09/16
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/09
10/24
10/27
10/31
Gateshead
6/10 over 2.5
5 scored
26 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
09/29
10/10
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 3-0
- 2-0
- 4-0
- 3-1
- 2-1
- 4-1
- 5-0
- 1-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Boreham Wood | Draw | Gateshead |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boreham Wood | 59%1.70 | 1%82.64 | 0%— |
| Level | 23%4.33 | 5%21.10 | 1%80.65 |
| Gateshead | 5%19.65 | 3%36.90 | 3%36.50 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Boreham Wood wins1Gateshead wins- W Boreham Wood vs Gateshead 3-0
- W Gateshead vs Boreham Wood 0-3
- D Boreham Wood vs Gateshead 1-1
- D Gateshead vs Boreham Wood 2-2
- L Boreham Wood vs Gateshead 0-2
- D Gateshead vs Boreham Wood 1-1
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Boreham Wood's side.