Botafogo RJ
34%
Fair odds 2.99
Bahia
Model pick
40%
Fair odds 2.50
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Botafogo RJ | Draw | Bahia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 34% | 26% | 40% |
| Elo model | 43% | 28% | 30% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Bahia
Bahia are rated 19 points above Botafogo RJ (1393 to 1374), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Botafogo RJ
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Botafogo RJ's chance of winning and takes the same from Bahia's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.5. Botafogo RJ score 0.8 a match against an average side (15th in Brasileirão); Bahia concede 1.7 (11th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Botafogo RJ WLLWD, lost 13 rating points; Bahia LWDLW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Botafogo RJ won 3, drew 1 and lost 3 of the last 7 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Botafogo RJBahiaBotafogo RJ
4/10 over 2.5
9 scored
13 conceded
09/06
09/13
09/16
09/19
10/08
10/12
10/17
10/24
10/29
11/05
Bahia
7/10 over 2.5
16 scored
17 conceded
08/30
09/05
09/15
09/20
10/09
10/11
10/18
10/25
10/29
11/06
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 0-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Botafogo RJ | Draw | Bahia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo RJ | 25%4.07 | 7%13.68 | 4%27.40 |
| Level | 8%11.85 | 15%6.73 | 16%6.32 |
| Bahia | 1%— | 3%30.03 | 21%4.75 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Botafogo RJ wins3Bahia wins- L Bahia vs Botafogo RJ 2-1
- W Botafogo RJ vs Bahia 2-1
- L Bahia vs Botafogo RJ 1-0
- D Bahia vs Botafogo RJ 0-0
- L Botafogo RJ vs Bahia 1-2
- W Botafogo RJ vs Bahia 3-0
- W Bahia vs Botafogo RJ 1-2
7 meetings in the data. Results shown from Botafogo RJ's side.