Bragantino
Model pick
51%
Fair odds 1.96
Vasco
24%
Fair odds 4.14
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Bragantino | Draw | Vasco | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| Elo model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Bragantino
Bragantino are rated 26 points above Vasco (1370 to 1344), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Bragantino
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Bragantino's chance of winning and takes the same from Vasco's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Bragantino
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.1. Bragantino score 0.9 a match against an average side (8th in Brasileirão); Vasco concede 1.8 (16th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Bragantino WWLDW, gained 20 rating points; Vasco WLWLD, gained 6 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Bragantino won 3, drew 2 and lost 2 of the last 7 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
BragantinoVascoBragantino
5/10 over 2.5
15 scored
14 conceded
09/05
09/13
09/20
10/03
10/07
10/13
10/18
10/24
10/28
11/02
Vasco
7/10 over 2.5
19 scored
12 conceded
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/08
10/10
10/18
10/24
10/29
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Bragantino | Draw | Vasco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bragantino | 31%3.27 | 4%25.77 | 1%95.24 |
| Level | 18%5.69 | 14%7.10 | 7%13.37 |
| Vasco | 3%29.15 | 6%16.98 | 16%6.24 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Bragantino wins2Vasco wins- W Vasco vs Bragantino 0-3
- L Bragantino vs Vasco 0-3
- W Vasco vs Bragantino 0-2
- D Vasco vs Bragantino 2-2
- W Bragantino vs Vasco 2-1
- L Vasco vs Bragantino 2-1
- D Bragantino vs Vasco 1-1
7 meetings in the data. Results shown from Bragantino's side.