Brann
Model pick
72%
Fair odds 1.38
Kristiansund
11%
Fair odds 8.78
The prediction
- 2–09%
- 2–19%
- 3–08%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Brann | Draw | Kristiansund | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 72% | 16% | 11% |
| Elo model | 66% | 23% | 12% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Brann
Brann are rated 145 points above Kristiansund (1432 to 1287), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Brann
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Brann's chance of winning and takes the same from Kristiansund's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Brann
Expected goals 2.6 to 1.0. Brann score 1.1 a match against an average side (6th in Eliteserien); Kristiansund concede 2.4 (16th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Brann
Brann DWLWL, barely moved; Kristiansund WDLLL, lost 13 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Brann won 3, drew 2 and lost 2 of the last 7 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
BrannKristiansundBrann
7/10 over 2.5
16 scored
18 conceded
09/05
09/13
09/20
10/09
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Kristiansund
8/10 over 2.5
16 scored
26 conceded
08/09
08/16
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 4-0
- 4-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Brann | Draw | Kristiansund |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brann | 34%2.95 | 1%71.43 | 0%— |
| Level | 29%3.46 | 8%13.11 | 3%38.91 |
| Kristiansund | 10%10.04 | 7%15.20 | 9%11.34 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Brann wins2Kristiansund wins- L Kristiansund vs Brann 3-2
- D Kristiansund vs Brann 2-2
- W Brann vs Kristiansund 4-2
- W Brann vs Kristiansund 2-1
- D Kristiansund vs Brann 2-2
- W Brann vs Kristiansund 3-1
- L Kristiansund vs Brann 3-2
7 meetings in the data. Results shown from Brann's side.