Brighton
Model pick
68%
Fair odds 1.47
Newcastle
13%
Fair odds 7.73
The prediction
- 2–011%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Brighton | Draw | Newcastle | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 68% | 19% | 13% |
| Elo model | 56% | 25% | 18% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Brighton
Brighton are rated 73 points above Newcastle (1646 to 1573), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Brighton
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Brighton's chance of winning and takes the same from Newcastle's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Brighton
Expected goals 2.3 to 0.9. Brighton score 1.9 a match against an average side (3rd in Premier League); Newcastle concede 1.2 (17th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Brighton
Brighton WWLDW, gained 11 rating points; Newcastle LWLLW, lost 12 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Brighton won 3, drew 4 and lost 3 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
BrightonNewcastleBrighton
4/10 over 2.5
22 scored
3 conceded
09/05
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Newcastle
5/10 over 2.5
12 scored
17 conceded
05/24
08/23
08/29
09/05
09/14
09/19
10/12
10/17
10/25
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 4-0
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Brighton | Draw | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 38%2.63 | 2%42.02 | 0%— |
| Level | 25%4.03 | 10%9.67 | 4%25.32 |
| Newcastle | 6%17.51 | 5%18.25 | 9%11.34 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Brighton wins3Newcastle wins- L Newcastle vs Brighton 3-1
- W Brighton vs Newcastle 2-1
- D Brighton vs Newcastle 1-1
- W Newcastle vs Brighton 0-1
- D Newcastle vs Brighton 1-1
- W Brighton vs Newcastle 3-1
- L Newcastle vs Brighton 4-1
- D Brighton vs Newcastle 0-0
- L Newcastle vs Brighton 2-1
- D Brighton vs Newcastle 1-1
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Brighton's side.