Bristol Rvs
Model pick
46%
Fair odds 2.19
Tranmere
28%
Fair odds 3.58
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Bristol Rvs | Draw | Tranmere | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Elo model | 50% | 27% | 23% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Bristol Rvs
Bristol Rvs are rated 31 points above Tranmere (1189 to 1158), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Bristol Rvs
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Bristol Rvs's chance of winning and takes the same from Tranmere's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Bristol Rvs
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.2. Bristol Rvs score 0.7 a match against an average side (14th in League Two); Tranmere concede 2.2 (17th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Tranmere
Bristol Rvs LDLLL, lost 36 rating points; Tranmere WDWLD, gained 16 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Bristol Rvs won 1, drew 2 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Bristol RvsTranmereBristol Rvs
5/10 over 2.5
6 scored
17 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Tranmere
3/10 over 2.5
12 scored
12 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Bristol Rvs | Draw | Tranmere |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol Rvs | 27%3.68 | 5%19.53 | 2%51.81 |
| Level | 17%6.04 | 16%6.42 | 12%8.64 |
| Tranmere | 2%40.98 | 5%21.46 | 15%6.69 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Bristol Rvs wins1Tranmere wins- W Tranmere vs Bristol Rvs 1-2
- L Bristol Rvs vs Tranmere 1-4
- D Tranmere vs Bristol Rvs 1-1
- D Bristol Rvs vs Tranmere 2-2
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Bristol Rvs's side.