Bromley
25%
Fair odds 4.03
Burton
Model pick
50%
Fair odds 2.02
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Bromley | Draw | Burton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 25% | 26% | 50% |
| Elo model | 32% | 28% | 40% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Burton
Burton are rated 95 points above Bromley (1311 to 1217), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Bromley
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Bromley's chance of winning and takes the same from Burton's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Burton
Expected goals 1.1 to 1.6. Bromley score 0.6 a match against an average side (23rd in League One); Burton concede 1.7 (12th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Burton
Bromley LLDLL, lost 28 rating points; Burton LWDDL, lost 7 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
BromleyBurtonBromley
7/10 over 2.5
9 scored
25 conceded
09/01
09/07
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
Burton
6/10 over 2.5
10 scored
16 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Bromley | Draw | Burton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bromley | 14%6.94 | 5%19.42 | 3%33.22 |
| Level | 9%10.56 | 15%6.69 | 18%5.52 |
| Burton | 1%68.97 | 4%22.42 | 29%3.45 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.