Bromley
Model pick
41%
Fair odds 2.46
Rotherham
33%
Fair odds 3.00
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Bromley | Draw | Rotherham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| Elo model | 47% | 27% | 26% |
Team news
- Shamal George Out
- Chanse Headman Out
- Ashley Charles Out
- Adam Jackson Doubtful
- Ben Thompson Doubtful
Karl Robinson takes charge for the first time; Deon Woodman and Jacob Mendy are on a list of injured players but no current status was found. Sports Mole says Omar Sowumni may replace Jackson in defence.
- Ossama Ashley Out
- Jamie Jellis Out
- Fabio Tavares Out
- Joe Rafferty Out
- Ewan Otoo Out
- Marvin Kaleta Out
- Paul Mullin Doubtful
Rotherham are reported to be without nine senior players through injuries and suspensions; Dominic Iorfa and Jili Buyabu, sent off at Swindon, are reported available for the FA Cup.
Allowing for this news: Bromley 44%, draw 26%, Rotherham 31% (xG 1.59 – 1.29). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: sportsmole.co.uk, kentsportsnews.com, rotherhamadvertiser.co.uk, rotherhamadvertiser.co.uk
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Bromley and Rotherham are rated almost level (1217 and 1208).
-
Home advantage Favours Bromley
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Bromley's chance of winning and takes the same from Rotherham's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Bromley
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.4. Bromley score 0.6 a match against an average side (23rd in League One); Rotherham concede 2.3 (18th best defence in League Two).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Bromley
Bromley LLDLL, lost 28 rating points; Rotherham LDDLL, lost 43 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
BromleyRotherhamBromley
7/10 over 2.5
9 scored
25 conceded
09/01
09/07
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
Rotherham
5/10 over 2.5
12 scored
19 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Bromley | Draw | Rotherham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bromley | 21%4.67 | 4%24.27 | 2%62.89 |
| Level | 16%6.10 | 15%6.83 | 11%9.06 |
| Rotherham | 3%29.33 | 6%16.03 | 21%4.73 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.