Burgos
Model pick
53%
Fair odds 1.90
Albacete
21%
Fair odds 4.69
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Burgos | Draw | Albacete | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 53% | 26% | 21% |
| Elo model | 59% | 25% | 16% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Burgos
Burgos are rated 92 points above Albacete (1414 to 1322), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Burgos
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Burgos's chance of winning and takes the same from Albacete's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Burgos
Expected goals 1.6 to 0.9. Burgos score 0.9 a match against an average side (18th in La Liga 2); Albacete concede 1.8 (22nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Burgos DWWLL, barely moved; Albacete WWLLL, lost 12 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Burgos won 3, drew 2 and lost 3 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
BurgosAlbaceteBurgos
5/10 over 2.5
14 scored
10 conceded
09/06
09/11
09/20
09/27
10/03
10/12
10/18
10/26
11/01
Albacete
5/10 over 2.5
8 scored
19 conceded
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/18
09/25
10/03
10/12
10/17
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Burgos | Draw | Albacete |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos | 31%3.27 | 4%27.86 | 1%— |
| Level | 20%5.12 | 16%6.35 | 7%13.83 |
| Albacete | 3%31.25 | 6%17.99 | 14%7.29 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Burgos wins3Albacete wins- W Albacete vs Burgos 2-3
- L Burgos vs Albacete 0-1
- W Burgos vs Albacete 1-0
- L Albacete vs Burgos 2-0
- W Burgos vs Albacete 2-1
- L Albacete vs Burgos 2-1
- D Burgos vs Albacete 1-1
- D Albacete vs Burgos 0-0
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Burgos's side.