Cadiz
34%
Fair odds 2.96
Cordoba
Model pick
40%
Fair odds 2.47
The prediction
- 1–112%
- 1–29%
- 2–18%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Cadiz | Draw | Cordoba | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 34% | 26% | 40% |
| Elo model | 38% | 28% | 34% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Cordoba
Cordoba are rated 49 points above Cadiz (1347 to 1297), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Cadiz
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Cadiz's chance of winning and takes the same from Cordoba's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Cordoba
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.5. Cadiz score 0.8 a match against an average side (23rd in La Liga 2); Cordoba concede 1.7 (17th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Cadiz LWLLW, gained 9 rating points; Cordoba DWWLW, gained 22 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Cadiz won 2, drew 0 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
CadizCordobaCadiz
5/10 over 2.5
13 scored
14 conceded
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/11
10/18
10/25
11/02
Cordoba
7/10 over 2.5
15 scored
18 conceded
08/30
09/07
09/12
09/18
09/27
10/05
10/10
10/16
10/24
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 0-2
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Cadiz | Draw | Cordoba |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cadiz | 19%5.22 | 5%20.20 | 2%41.49 |
| Level | 13%7.86 | 14%6.90 | 14%7.08 |
| Cordoba | 2%42.19 | 5%18.62 | 24%4.10 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Cadiz wins2Cordoba wins- L Cadiz vs Cordoba 1-3
- W Cordoba vs Cadiz 1-2
- L Cordoba vs Cadiz 4-2
- W Cadiz vs Cordoba 2-0
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Cadiz's side.