Cambuur
Model pick
54%
Fair odds 1.84
Sparta Rotterdam
24%
Fair odds 4.26
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Cambuur | Draw | Sparta Rotterdam | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 54% | 22% | 24% |
| Elo model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Sparta Rotterdam
Sparta Rotterdam are rated 25 points above Cambuur (1448 to 1424), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Cambuur
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Cambuur's chance of winning and takes the same from Sparta Rotterdam's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Cambuur
Expected goals 2.1 to 1.3. Cambuur score 1.3 a match against an average side (9th in Eredivisie); Sparta Rotterdam concede 1.7 (15th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Cambuur
Cambuur WWDWD, gained 53 rating points; Sparta Rotterdam WLWDL, lost 5 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Cambuur won 1, drew 1 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
CambuurSparta RotterdamCambuur
8/10 over 2.5
23 scored
18 conceded
08/15
08/23
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/24
10/31
Sparta Rotterdam
10/10 over 2.5
20 scored
25 conceded
08/14
08/22
08/29
09/04
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 2-2
- 1-2
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Cambuur | Draw | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cambuur | 29%3.42 | 3%28.82 | 1%85.47 |
| Level | 20%4.96 | 11%8.86 | 7%14.08 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 5%18.42 | 7%15.36 | 16%6.41 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Cambuur wins2Sparta Rotterdam wins- L Sparta Rotterdam vs Cambuur 4-1
- L Cambuur vs Sparta Rotterdam 0-3
- D Cambuur vs Sparta Rotterdam 1-1
- W Sparta Rotterdam vs Cambuur 0-4
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Cambuur's side.