Carlisle
33%
Fair odds 3.06
Salford
Model pick
42%
Fair odds 2.40
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Carlisle | Draw | Salford | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 33% | 26% | 42% |
| Elo model | 27% | 27% | 45% |
Team news
- Teddy Jenks Doubtful
Stephen Wearne is tipped to replace Jenks in midfield if he is unavailable; no other recent Carlisle injury news found. Junior Luamba was reported as likely to miss this game in a report about 18 days old, so treat it as unverified.
- Luke Molyneux Doubtful
Daniel Udoh is expected to replace Molyneux out wide if he is ruled out. Jamal Lowe is back from suspension and Di'Shon Bernard is in contention after injury, so both are available rather than absent.
Allowing for this news: Carlisle 31%, draw 26%, Salford 43% (xG 1.30 – 1.58). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: sportsmole.co.uk, livescore.com, uk.news.yahoo.com
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Salford
Salford are rated 127 points above Carlisle (1296 to 1169), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Carlisle
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Carlisle's chance of winning and takes the same from Salford's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Salford
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.6. Carlisle score 0.7 a match against an average side (2nd in National League); Salford concede 1.8 (2nd best defence in League Two).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Carlisle WWWDW, gained 33 rating points; Salford WWWWW, gained 38 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Carlisle won 3, drew 1 and lost 2 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
CarlisleSalfordCarlisle
6/10 over 2.5
19 scored
13 conceded
09/12
09/15
09/19
09/26
09/29
10/03
10/24
10/28
10/31
Salford
6/10 over 2.5
22 scored
9 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/26
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 0-2
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Carlisle | Draw | Salford |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlisle | 20%4.96 | 6%17.36 | 3%32.79 |
| Level | 11%8.94 | 14%6.98 | 16%6.45 |
| Salford | 2%54.64 | 5%21.79 | 24%4.24 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Carlisle wins2Salford wins- D Carlisle vs Salford 2-2
- W Salford vs Carlisle 0-1
- L Carlisle vs Salford 2-3
- W Salford vs Carlisle 1-4
- L Salford vs Carlisle 2-1
- W Carlisle vs Salford 2-1
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Carlisle's side.