Carlisle
Model pick
65%
Fair odds 1.54
Sutton
15%
Fair odds 6.77
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Carlisle | Draw | Sutton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 65% | 20% | 15% |
| Elo model | 64% | 23% | 13% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Carlisle
Carlisle are rated 132 points above Sutton (1169 to 1036), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Carlisle
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Carlisle's chance of winning and takes the same from Sutton's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Carlisle
Expected goals 2.2 to 0.9. Carlisle score 0.7 a match against an average side (2nd in National League); Sutton concede 3.0 (11th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Carlisle WWWDW, gained 33 rating points; Sutton WWLLD, gained 21 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Sutton
Carlisle won 1, drew 2 and lost 3 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
CarlisleSuttonCarlisle
6/10 over 2.5
19 scored
13 conceded
09/12
09/15
09/19
09/26
09/29
10/03
10/24
10/28
10/31
Sutton
4/10 over 2.5
13 scored
15 conceded
09/12
09/15
09/19
09/26
10/09
10/24
10/28
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Carlisle | Draw | Sutton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlisle | 44%2.27 | 4%23.26 | 1%85.47 |
| Level | 18%5.41 | 11%8.70 | 6%16.50 |
| Sutton | 3%35.34 | 4%26.67 | 8%12.64 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Carlisle wins3Sutton wins- W Carlisle vs Sutton 3-0
- L Sutton vs Carlisle 2-1
- D Sutton vs Carlisle 1-1
- D Carlisle vs Sutton 1-1
- L Carlisle vs Sutton 0-2
- L Sutton vs Carlisle 4-0
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Carlisle's side.