Carrarese
Model pick
39%
Fair odds 2.54
Juve Stabia
32%
Fair odds 3.09
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Carrarese | Draw | Juve Stabia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 39% | 28% | 32% |
| Elo model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Juve Stabia
Juve Stabia are rated 38 points above Carrarese (1360 to 1322), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Carrarese
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Carrarese's chance of winning and takes the same from Juve Stabia's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Carrarese
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.2. Carrarese score 0.9 a match against an average side (15th in Serie B); Juve Stabia concede 1.5 (7th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Carrarese LWLWW, gained 15 rating points; Juve Stabia DLWWD, gained 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Carrarese won 1, drew 2 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
CarrareseJuve StabiaCarrarese
5/10 over 2.5
9 scored
13 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/25
10/28
11/01
Juve Stabia
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
11 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/18
10/10
10/18
10/24
10/28
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Carrarese | Draw | Juve Stabia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese | 23%4.41 | 5%21.05 | 2%58.82 |
| Level | 15%6.64 | 17%5.78 | 12%8.09 |
| Juve Stabia | 2%46.08 | 5%19.65 | 19%5.29 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Carrarese wins1Juve Stabia wins- D Juve Stabia vs Carrarese 1-1
- W Carrarese vs Juve Stabia 3-0
- L Juve Stabia vs Carrarese 2-1
- D Carrarese vs Juve Stabia 0-0
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Carrarese's side.