Celta
Model pick
42%
Fair odds 2.38
Villarreal
32%
Fair odds 3.10
The prediction
- 1–112%
- 2–19%
- 1–08%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Celta | Draw | Villarreal | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Elo model | 41% | 28% | 31% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Villarreal
Villarreal are rated 32 points above Celta (1524 to 1492), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Celta
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Celta's chance of winning and takes the same from Villarreal's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Celta
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.3. Celta score 1.1 a match against an average side (15th in La Liga); Villarreal concede 1.4 (17th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Celta
Celta LLDWW, barely moved; Villarreal LLWLD, lost 23 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Villarreal
Celta won 2, drew 3 and lost 5 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
CeltaVillarrealCelta
6/10 over 2.5
12 scored
11 conceded
09/13
09/16
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Villarreal
7/10 over 2.5
15 scored
18 conceded
09/14
09/17
09/20
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/30
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Celta | Draw | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celta | 23%4.42 | 4%24.21 | 2%64.52 |
| Level | 16%6.11 | 14%6.97 | 10%9.56 |
| Villarreal | 3%28.82 | 6%15.97 | 21%4.81 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Celta wins5Villarreal wins- L Villarreal vs Celta 2-1
- D Celta vs Villarreal 1-1
- W Celta vs Villarreal 3-0
- L Villarreal vs Celta 4-3
- W Celta vs Villarreal 3-2
- L Villarreal vs Celta 3-2
- L Villarreal vs Celta 3-1
- D Celta vs Villarreal 1-1
- L Villarreal vs Celta 1-0
- D Celta vs Villarreal 1-1
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Celta's side.