Celtic
Model pick
77%
Fair odds 1.29Bookmakers 80%
Kilmarnock
9%
Fair odds 11.22Bookmakers 8%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Celtic | Draw | Kilmarnock | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 77% | 14% | 9% |
| Elo model | 72% | 20% | 8% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 80% | 12% | 8% |
| Best price on offer | 1.18 | 8.50 | 14.50 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Celtic
Celtic are rated 197 points above Kilmarnock (1607 to 1410), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Celtic
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 6 points to Celtic's chance of winning and takes the same from Kilmarnock's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Celtic
Expected goals 3.0 to 1.0. Celtic score 1.7 a match against an average side (1st in Scottish Premiership); Kilmarnock concede 1.8 (12th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Celtic WLDWL, lost 20 rating points; Kilmarnock DLLWL, lost 16 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Kilmarnock
Celtic will have had 3 days' rest, Kilmarnock 8. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Celtic
Bookmakers rate Celtic higher than the model does: Celtic 80% against the model's 77%, Kilmarnock 8% against 9%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Celtic
Celtic won 12, drew 1 and lost 1 of the last 14 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
CelticKilmarnockCeltic
7/10 over 2.5
19 scored
18 conceded
09/17
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/28
11/01
11/05
Kilmarnock
6/10 over 2.5
9 scored
19 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/05
09/15
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/28
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 75%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 3-0
- 2-1
- 3-1
- 4-0
- 4-1
- 1-1
- 1-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Celtic | Draw | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic | 55%1.82 | 3%30.21 | 1%— |
| Level | 19%5.23 | 7%14.04 | 4%27.17 |
| Kilmarnock | 3%28.65 | 3%35.09 | 5%22.12 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
12Celtic wins1Kilmarnock wins- W Kilmarnock vs Celtic 1-5
- W Kilmarnock vs Celtic 2-3
- W Celtic vs Kilmarnock 4-0
- W Kilmarnock vs Celtic 1-2
- W Celtic vs Kilmarnock 5-1
- W Kilmarnock vs Celtic 0-2
- W Celtic vs Kilmarnock 4-0
- W Kilmarnock vs Celtic 0-5
- D Celtic vs Kilmarnock 1-1
- L Kilmarnock vs Celtic 2-1
14 meetings in the data. Results shown from Celtic's side.