Cercle Brugge
Model pick
51%
Fair odds 1.96
Mechelen
25%
Fair odds 3.94
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Cercle Brugge | Draw | Mechelen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 51% | 23% | 25% |
| Elo model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Mechelen
Mechelen are rated 25 points above Cercle Brugge (1470 to 1445), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Cercle Brugge
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Cercle Brugge's chance of winning and takes the same from Mechelen's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Cercle Brugge
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.3. Cercle Brugge score 1.3 a match against an average side (8th in Belgian Pro League); Mechelen concede 1.5 (15th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Mechelen
Cercle Brugge WLLLD, lost 7 rating points; Mechelen WWWDL, gained 22 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Cercle Brugge won 3, drew 4 and lost 3 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Cercle BruggeMechelenCercle Brugge
7/10 over 2.5
13 scored
22 conceded
08/08
08/14
08/23
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/25
11/01
Mechelen
5/10 over 2.5
13 scored
18 conceded
08/09
08/16
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/11
09/19
10/11
10/31
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Cercle Brugge | Draw | Mechelen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cercle Brugge | 33%3.04 | 5%18.69 | 2%46.95 |
| Level | 16%6.33 | 13%7.91 | 10%10.22 |
| Mechelen | 3%35.34 | 5%21.79 | 14%7.18 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Cercle Brugge wins3Mechelen wins- L Cercle Brugge vs Mechelen 2-3
- D Mechelen vs Cercle Brugge 0-0
- W Cercle Brugge vs Mechelen 1-0
- L Mechelen vs Cercle Brugge 2-0
- L Cercle Brugge vs Mechelen 2-3
- W Mechelen vs Cercle Brugge 0-2
- D Mechelen vs Cercle Brugge 1-1
- D Cercle Brugge vs Mechelen 0-0
- D Mechelen vs Cercle Brugge 2-2
- W Cercle Brugge vs Mechelen 3-1
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Cercle Brugge's side.