Chapecoense-SC
5%
Fair odds 19.31
Palmeiras
Model pick
82%
Fair odds 1.22
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Chapecoense-SC | Draw | Palmeiras | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 5% | 13% | 82% |
| Elo model | 7% | 19% | 73% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Palmeiras
Palmeiras are rated 341 points above Chapecoense-SC (1543 to 1203), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Chapecoense-SC
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 5 points to Chapecoense-SC's chance of winning and takes the same from Palmeiras's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Palmeiras
Expected goals 0.6 to 2.8. Chapecoense-SC score 0.6 a match against an average side (23rd in Brasileirão); Palmeiras concede 1.0 (1st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Palmeiras
Chapecoense-SC LLWLL, lost 11 rating points; Palmeiras WDWWW, gained 20 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Chapecoense-SCPalmeirasChapecoense-SC
8/10 over 2.5
9 scored
22 conceded
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/08
10/12
10/17
10/24
10/28
11/03
Palmeiras
2/10 over 2.5
18 scored
3 conceded
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/09
10/11
10/17
10/24
10/28
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 0-2
- 0-3
- 0-1
- 0-4
- 1-2
- 1-3
- 1-1
- 1-4
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 5 |
| 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Chapecoense-SC | Draw | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense-SC | 8%11.89 | 9%11.30 | 18%5.47 |
| Level | 0%— | 5%20.66 | 34%2.94 |
| Palmeiras | 0%— | 0%— | 25%3.96 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Chapecoense-SC wins2Palmeiras wins- L Palmeiras vs Chapecoense-SC 1-0
- L Chapecoense-SC vs Palmeiras 0-2
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Chapecoense-SC's side.