Charleroi
Model pick
60%
Fair odds 1.68
Beveren
18%
Fair odds 5.43
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Charleroi | Draw | Beveren | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| Elo model | 56% | 26% | 18% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Charleroi
Charleroi are rated 72 points above Beveren (1546 to 1474), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Charleroi
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Charleroi's chance of winning and takes the same from Beveren's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Charleroi
Expected goals 2.0 to 1.0. Charleroi score 1.4 a match against an average side (5th in Belgian Pro League); Beveren concede 1.4 (11th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Charleroi
Charleroi WLWWW, gained 11 rating points; Beveren LDLLW, lost 11 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
CharleroiBeverenCharleroi
6/10 over 2.5
21 scored
12 conceded
08/09
08/16
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/24
11/01
Beveren
7/10 over 2.5
13 scored
20 conceded
08/09
08/16
08/22
08/28
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/09
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Charleroi | Draw | Beveren |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charleroi | 37%2.73 | 4%24.51 | 1%83.33 |
| Level | 20%5.06 | 12%8.08 | 7%14.37 |
| Beveren | 4%28.01 | 5%21.01 | 11%9.40 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.