Cheltenham
Model pick
44%
Fair odds 2.29
Halifax
30%
Fair odds 3.29
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Cheltenham | Draw | Halifax | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| Elo model | 56% | 25% | 18% |
Team news
- Joe Tomlinson Out
Cheltenham's club news page lists Tomlinson as the only injured player; Charlie McCann and Shaun McWilliams are reported back to fitness, so they are not absences. Position and starter status are unverified, and no pre-match press conference was found.
- AJ Warburton Out
Halifax boss John McGrath says Shaun Hobson will be fit despite a knee twinge, and loanee Lucas Houghton is eligible; captain Cody Johnson's suspension applies to the next league game at Kidderminster, not this cup tie. Warburton was reported on 19 October to be set to miss up to two months, so his current status is unconfirmed.
Allowing for this news: Cheltenham 50%, draw 25%, Halifax 25% (xG 1.70 – 1.13). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search, which found little recent news, so treat this with care. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: halifaxcourier.co.uk, halifaxcourier.co.uk, footballlowdown.com, cheltenhamtownnews.co.uk
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Cheltenham
Cheltenham are rated 75 points above Halifax (1171 to 1096), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Cheltenham
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Cheltenham's chance of winning and takes the same from Halifax's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Cheltenham
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.3. Cheltenham score 0.6 a match against an average side (22nd in League Two); Halifax concede 2.6 (6th best defence in National League).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Halifax
Cheltenham LWWLL, lost 16 rating points; Halifax WLDWW, gained 21 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
CheltenhamHalifaxCheltenham
6/10 over 2.5
15 scored
18 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Halifax
5/10 over 2.5
19 scored
10 conceded
09/15
09/19
10/03
10/10
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Cheltenham | Draw | Halifax |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham | 28%3.62 | 6%16.39 | 3%36.10 |
| Level | 15%6.89 | 15%6.73 | 13%7.44 |
| Halifax | 2%50.76 | 4%25.00 | 15%6.81 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.