Chesterfield
Model pick
68%
Fair odds 1.46
Yeovil
12%
Fair odds 8.05
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Chesterfield | Draw | Yeovil | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 68% | 19% | 12% |
| Elo model | 69% | 21% | 10% |
Team news
No absences reported
No recent injury or suspension reports found for Chesterfield; the last Joel Randall hamstring update is about 17 days old and said he could return within 10 days. Manager Paul Cook has admitted an FA improper-conduct charge, but that concerns him, not a player.
No absences reported
No recent injury, suspension or line-up news found for Yeovil in the last three days; only pre-match pieces about the tie were found.
Allowing for this news: Chesterfield 69%, draw 19%, Yeovil 12% (xG 2.27 – 0.83). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search, which found little recent news, so treat this with care. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: derbyshiretimes.co.uk, derbyshiretimes.co.uk, derbyshiretimes.co.uk, gloverscast.co.uk
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Chesterfield
Chesterfield are rated 174 points above Yeovil (1242 to 1068), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Chesterfield
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Chesterfield's chance of winning and takes the same from Yeovil's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Chesterfield
Expected goals 2.2 to 0.9. Chesterfield score 0.8 a match against an average side (3rd in League Two); Yeovil concede 2.7 (9th best defence in National League).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Yeovil
Chesterfield LWDLD, lost 14 rating points; Yeovil LWLWW, gained 30 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Chesterfield
Chesterfield won 2, drew 2 and lost 0 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
ChesterfieldYeovilChesterfield
7/10 over 2.5
21 scored
17 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/30
Yeovil
6/10 over 2.5
23 scored
12 conceded
09/12
09/15
09/18
10/10
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 4-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Chesterfield | Draw | Yeovil |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield | 48%2.08 | 4%23.04 | 1%86.96 |
| Level | 18%5.41 | 11%9.09 | 6%17.76 |
| Yeovil | 2%41.67 | 3%32.79 | 6%16.72 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Chesterfield wins0Yeovil wins- D Chesterfield vs Yeovil 1-1
- D Yeovil vs Chesterfield 2-2
- W Chesterfield vs Yeovil 1-0
- W Yeovil vs Chesterfield 0-2
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Chesterfield's side.