Colchester
Model pick
41%
Fair odds 2.43
York
32%
Fair odds 3.13
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Colchester | Draw | York | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Elo model | 38% | 28% | 34% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours York
York are rated 48 points above Colchester (1236 to 1188), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Colchester
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Colchester's chance of winning and takes the same from York's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Colchester
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.2. Colchester score 0.6 a match against an average side (21st in League Two); York concede 2.3 (19th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Colchester LLDDL, lost 26 rating points; York LLWDD, lost 15 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
ColchesterYorkColchester
3/10 over 2.5
7 scored
16 conceded
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
York
4/10 over 2.5
16 scored
14 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Colchester | Draw | York |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colchester | 26%3.83 | 6%17.04 | 2%40.32 |
| Level | 14%7.28 | 16%6.38 | 13%7.51 |
| York | 2%53.76 | 4%23.53 | 17%5.99 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.