Como
Model pick
82%
Fair odds 1.22Bookmakers 72%
AEK
6%
Fair odds 15.62Bookmakers 12%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Como: 82% here, 72% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Como | Draw | AEK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 82% | 12% | 6% |
| Elo model | 66% | 22% | 12% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 72% | 17% | 12% |
| Best price on offer | 1.36 | 6.25 | 9.00 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Como
Como are rated 146 points above AEK (1658 to 1512), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Como
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Como's chance of winning and takes the same from AEK's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Como
Expected goals 3.1 to 0.8. Como score 2.3 a match against an average side (1st in Serie A); AEK concede 1.2 (3rd best defence in Greek Super League).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Como
Como WWWWW, gained 49 rating points; AEK LLWLL, lost 23 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours AEK
Bookmakers rate AEK higher than the model does: Como 72% against the model's 82%, AEK 12% against 6%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
ComoAEKComo
6/10 over 2.5
26 scored
10 conceded
09/14
09/20
10/11
10/14
10/18
10/21
10/24
10/27
11/01
11/04
AEK
7/10 over 2.5
21 scored
15 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/14
10/20
10/24
11/01
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 68%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 3-0
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 2-1
- 4-0
- 4-1
- 1-0
- 1-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Como | Draw | AEK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Como | 43%2.33 | 1%70.92 | 0%— |
| Level | 31%3.19 | 6%16.18 | 2%45.45 |
| AEK | 8%12.84 | 4%26.25 | 4%24.27 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.