Como
Model pick
64%
Fair odds 1.57
Juventus
16%
Fair odds 6.33
The prediction
- 2–010%
- 2–110%
- 1–110%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Como | Draw | Juventus | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 64% | 21% | 16% |
| Elo model | 53% | 26% | 21% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Como
Como are rated 52 points above Juventus (1658 to 1606), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Como
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Como's chance of winning and takes the same from Juventus's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Como
Expected goals 2.2 to 1.0. Como score 2.3 a match against an average side (1st in Serie A); Juventus concede 0.9 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Como
Como WWWWW, gained 49 rating points; Juventus WWLWD, gained 7 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Como won 2, drew 0 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
ComoJuventusComo
6/10 over 2.5
26 scored
10 conceded
09/14
09/20
10/11
10/14
10/18
10/21
10/24
10/27
11/01
11/04
Juventus
5/10 over 2.5
18 scored
10 conceded
09/17
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/28
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Como | Draw | Juventus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Como | 30%3.34 | 2%45.66 | 0%— |
| Level | 27%3.70 | 11%9.10 | 5%21.55 |
| Juventus | 7%14.12 | 7%15.15 | 11%9.07 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Como wins2Juventus wins- W Juventus vs Como 0-2
- W Como vs Juventus 2-0
- L Como vs Juventus 1-2
- L Juventus vs Como 3-0
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Como's side.