Corinthians
Model pick
43%
Fair odds 2.34
Gremio
29%
Fair odds 3.44
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Corinthians | Draw | Gremio | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Elo model | 47% | 27% | 26% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Corinthians and Gremio are rated almost level (1340 and 1333).
-
Home advantage Favours Corinthians
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Corinthians's chance of winning and takes the same from Gremio's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Corinthians
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.1. Corinthians score 0.7 a match against an average side (17th in Brasileirão); Gremio concede 1.8 (15th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Corinthians DWLDL, barely moved; Gremio LWWLD, gained 5 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Corinthians
Corinthians won 5, drew 4 and lost 0 of the last 9 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
CorinthiansGremioCorinthians
6/10 over 2.5
10 scored
18 conceded
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/07
10/11
10/20
10/24
10/30
11/05
Gremio
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
15 conceded
09/08
09/12
09/16
09/20
10/07
10/11
10/18
10/26
10/30
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Corinthians | Draw | Gremio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corinthians | 29%3.39 | 5%20.75 | 1%81.97 |
| Level | 12%8.20 | 18%5.63 | 9%10.89 |
| Gremio | 2%64.94 | 5%21.32 | 19%5.23 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Corinthians wins0Gremio wins- W Gremio vs Corinthians 1-3
- W Corinthians vs Gremio 2-0
- D Gremio vs Corinthians 1-1
- W Gremio vs Corinthians 0-3
- D Corinthians vs Gremio 2-2
- W Gremio vs Corinthians 0-1
- D Corinthians vs Gremio 4-4
- D Corinthians vs Gremio 1-1
- W Gremio vs Corinthians 0-1
9 meetings in the data. Results shown from Corinthians's side.